Government and society are at odds on national security
As Japan ramps up its military, polls show that many citizens are on a different pageThe Japan Times (Commentary)

In recent years, Tokyo has strengthened its military capabilities in response to an unstable regional security environment.

Japanese people have long maintained their identity as a pacifist nation, but as the country’s stance on defense and national security shifts, how accepting is the public of these changes?

After Japan’s defeat in World War II, "exclusive defense" became its basic security policy and the country has since possessed only the minimum military force necessary for self-defense, as established by the postwar peace Constitution.

However, several policy changes have signaled a major shift. In 2014, the Cabinet approved the right to collective self-defense — meaning that the Self-Defense Forces can take action to support an ally under attack. Furthermore, in 2022, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration revised the National Security Strategy to equip Japan with a counterattack capability and double its defense budget.

When Kishida visited Washington last month, Japan and the United States announced that they would upgrade their command and control frameworks to enable operations and capabilities integration between their respective forces.

In his speech to the U.S. Congress, Kishida also highlighted Japan's rapid defense buildup over the past few years. He emphasized that he views Tokyo and Washington as global — rather than just regional — partners and that Japan takes its role as the United States’ closest ally seriously.

Several American media outlets reported that Japan is moving away from its long-held pacifism and is seeking to become a mutual defense partner to Washington. Kishida's speech certainly indicates that his government is willing to join the U.S. in interventions even in regions distant from Japan. Indeed, the policy of taking on a global role as a defense partner to the U.S. is significantly different from Japan’s stance of just a decade ago.

Last month, a U.S. government official working on Japan told me that Japan has changed a lot over the past five years and that there has been almost no opposition to the expansion of defense capabilities, which makes things easy for the U.S.

However, a deeper look at public sentiments tells a different story. While it seems that most Japanese people support the expansion of military strength, they wish to limit this to an exclusively defense-oriented policy. This is meant in the traditional sense of the term, whereby the SDF is charged with defending only the territory, territorial waters and people of Japan in and around its borders.

For example, I was surprised to see the results of an April poll by the conservative-leaning Yomiuri Shimbun. People were asked what they thought about security legislation that allows Japan to exercise collective self-defense. The result was very close, with 49% of respondents approving this policy and 48% disapproving it.

This means that virtually half were not in favor of legal reforms made almost a decade ago, in 2015. And since then, the government has expanded defense capabilities even further.

The poll also showed a split result between 50% and 48% of respondents who respectively did and did not approve of the revision of the National Security Strategy. Also, 47% of respondents were in favor of and 49% were not in favor of the relaxation in March this year of export restrictions on defense equipment.

A more clear-cut result emerged regarding the three principles of "not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons" (in line with the Constitution), with 73% of respondents saying that these principles should be upheld.

Since the results of such polls vary greatly depending on the questions asked and, in general, the Yomiuri's polls often lean in favor of the government, a look at other surveys gives a more detailed picture of Japanese public opinion.

A poll from last year by Jiji Press, a middle-of-the-road news agency, found 60.4% of people opposed and 16.5% were in favor of easing lethal weapons exports.

The Japan Press Research Institute, an affiliate of Kyodo News (a news agency) and Jiji Press, found last year that 55.5% opposed an increase in defense spending, while 42.8% were in favor of it. In the same survey, only 13.3% of respondents agreed that the SDF should fight alongside the U.S. against China in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

In general, regardless of who is doing the polling, an increasing number of people support strengthening Japan’s defense forces. However, a nuanced picture emerges concerning how this objective should be met.

In the Yomiuri poll, in response to the question "What should the government focus on to strengthen defense capabilities?,” only 26% and 13% respectively supported the development of long-range missiles and next-generation fighter jets — both areas that the government has emphasized recently.

In the same question, out of the 12 available options, the only ones that received more than 40% approval were “cooperation with allies and partners,” “strengthening missile defense systems” and “using satellites” — items strongly related to defense rather than the capacity to intervene in other countries.

Over the past few years, the government has consciously avoided debating security policy changes in the Diet, with reforms adopted mainly by the Cabinet. This has deprived lawmakers and citizens of the opportunity to reflect on these issues and express their views, including dissenting ones.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party still wants to amend the Constitution and the number of those in favor of such a change has grown. However, what people support is not necessarily aligned with the LDP's main target, which is to change Article 9 on the “renunciation of war.”

Another Yomiuri Shimbun poll, published this month, asked people what Japan should do about Article 9. The combined proportion of respondents who supported the interpretation of the Article and abiding by it without amendments exceeds those who support its amendment by 8%.

And a May poll, this time by the liberal-leaning Asahi Shimbun, found that 61% of people opposed Article 9’s amendment — almost double the percentage of those in favor.

On May 3, large rallies were held throughout Japan for Constitution Memorial Day. In Tokyo, organizers stated that 32,000 people — a number exceeding expectations — gathered to show their support for protecting the peace Constitution and against amending Article 9.

I was one of the two main speakers at the Tokyo rally. From the large stage in a park in Koto Ward, in front of tens of thousands of people, I felt the audience’s anger toward the government for changing the country’s direction away from the one they have known and take pride in. The gap between the government and society when it comes to national security was brought into even starker relief.

This reminded me of what a former White House official once said when I showed him the results of polling on the issue: “Why doesn't the Japanese government listen to the voice of the people?”

This article was first published in The Japan Times (May 27, 2024)